Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools, 3rd Edition
- Robert T. Clemen
- Terence Reilly
- ISBN-10: 0538797576
- ISBN-13: 9780538797573
- 848 Pages | Hardcover
- Previous Editions: 2004, 2001, 2001
- COPYRIGHT: 2014 Published
MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS® is a new edition of Bob Clemen's best-selling title, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straightforward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® software by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools®. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students in business and engineering.
"The book is very usable for students, even if they don't use it for class. I recommend to all my students that MAKING HARD DECISIONS should be part of their professional library." - Andrew G. Loerch, George Mason University
— Andrew G. Loerch, George Mason University
1. Introduction to Decision Analysis.
SECTION I: MODELING DECISIONS.
2. Elements of Decision Problems.
3. Structuring Decisions.
4. Making Choices.
5. Sensitivity Analysis.
6. Organizational Decision Making.
SECTION II: MODELING UNCERTAINTY.
7. Probability Basics.
8. Subjective Probability.
9. Theoretical Probability Models.
10. Using Data.
11. Monte Carlo Simulation.
12. Value of Information.
13. Real Options.
SECTION III. MODELING PREFERENCES.
14. Risk Attitudes.
15. Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications.
16. Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Function.
17. Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactions
18. Conclusions and Further Reading.